Portsmouth gambles - and may lose

San Bernadino and Stockton, California, embraced them and fell short on their payments. Other cities, despite the risk, are embracing them.

They are called pension obligation bonds; municipalities, short on cash and long on political promises, issue them to shore up infirm pension funds for city and school pensioners.

Portsmouth is a fan.

Many experts advise caution. But the experts are economists and financiers; city officials are politicians and civil servants.

In 2013, the city issued $166 million of the quirky bonds to satisfy two underfunded pension funds, which are now closed. Mayor Kenny Wright noted this achievement in a state of the city address. The bonds, part of a $209.5 million package, are listed as taxable general oblilgation and refunding bonds, 2013, series B. 

If he remains mayor, he may regret his decision. So might future residents of Portsmouth (if any are left).

Here's how they work.

Cities invest the proceeds of the bond and assume a higher return on the investments than the debt they pay on the bonds. That is a faulty assumption.

In other words, Portsmouth and cities are playing the spread between what they owe and what they “think” they can reap. They are gambling with the city's financial future – and many are losing.

For example, if the bond debt is six percent every year and the investment return on average is 7 percent, cities stay solvent and pay their obligations.

Should the market dip, should the return drop below the debt, cities scramble for an answer.

Pension obligation bonds figured prominently in last year’s bankruptcy in Stockton, which issued $125 million in pension bonds in 2007 – after it had improved retirement benefits and compensation several times, according to the Center for Investigative Reporting.

Stockton's investments lost about a third of their value in the stock market crash, the article said. Detroit, the largest U.S. city to file for bankruptcy, failed to realize expected returns after issuing pension bonds in 2005 and 2006, the article said.

It’s the dumbest idea I ever heard,” Jon Corzine told Bloomberg.com in 2008 when he was still governor of New Jersey. “It’s speculating the way I would have speculated in my bond position at Goldman Sachs.”

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College tracked 270 pension obligation bonds since 1992. The bonds, they found, had “a negative average real return from 1992-2009, but show a small gain when the time period is extended to 2014.”

The Center said unfunded pension liabilities may be flexible obligations that can be smoothed over time. Pension obligation bonds, the Center said, are inflexible obligations with required annual payments.

Pension obligation bonds can be a useful tool for fiscally sound governments, the Center said. But evidence shows that financially stressed municipalities issue these bonds.

Mayor Kenny Wright said the city must be vigilant and optimistic. They should be. They should also find a new city manager, city attorney, finance director, police chief and economic development director.

The mayor waxes eloquent.

We have painfully, yet successfully, weathered the economic storm and continue to rise from it as a more vibrant City.” the mayor said in his state of the city speech in April.

That was before the budget battles, the firing of the city manager and the city attorney and the departure of the police chief, the finance director and the economic development director.

That was before the tax hike and the recall of the mayor.

Be vigilant, be optimistic, praetripudus, Mayor Wright and Portsmouth City Council.